What is the definition of Key Assumptions Check?

• A. A visualization tool to evaluate strength of argument.
• B. A matrix technique that generates ideas on the perspective of actors relevant to an intelligence question.
• C. Deliberate approach to identifying and evaluating the impact of assumptions that could, if proven wrong, change an assessment.
• D. A method for listing potential sources of uncertainty.

Answer: (C)

The key idea here is surfacing and testing the beliefs your analysis relies on. A Key Assumptions Check is a deliberate process to identify the important assumptions your assessment is built on, evaluate how credible they are, and determine what would happen to the conclusion if one of those assumptions turned out to be false. It focuses on those assumptions that, if proven wrong, would change the overall outcome, rather than just cataloging uncertainties.

In practice, you list the critical assumptions, scrutinize their basis with available evidence, assess the potential impact if each assumption proves false, and consider alternative interpretations or safeguards to reduce reliance on fragile assumptions. This helps keep conclusions resilient in the face of information gaps or unexpected developments.

Other techniques describe different aims. A method aimed at visualizing how strong an argument is examines the argumentative structure rather than testing the real-world validity of its premises. A matrix that captures perspectives of actors helps map viewpoints rather than test the viability of underlying assumptions. And simply listing potential sources of uncertainty catalogs unknowns without explicitly weighing how their being wrong would alter the assessment.

For example, if the analysis assumes a specific supply route will stay open, you would validate that assumption, consider what would happen if the route is disrupted, and outline alternative supply options or adjustments to the assessment.